Probabilistic Weather Forecasts
ilika quantifies weather uncertainty—so you can plan for risk, not just react to it. We forecast probabilities of high-impact events like wind, rain, or heatwaves with precision and clarity.
Example: Probability of 10-meter wind exceeding 10 m/s, next 10 days
Why Probabilities Matter
Traditional forecasts give a single expected value. We deliver a full range of possible outcomes—with probabilities. That means you can answer questions like: *What’s the chance of rain over 10mm?* Or *What’s the likelihood of damaging wind next week?*
Our forecasts are powered by ECMWF’s AIFS Ensemble, a global high-resolution model. Each product is processed with ilika’s own analytics pipeline and delivered in formats ready for decision-making.
- Based on 50+ atmospheric simulations
- Forecasts updated daily for 15-day horizons
- Delivered via API, dashboard, or custom files
- Available globally, down to 25 km grids
You Define the Event. We Forecast It.
Every industry cares about different weather triggers. At ilika, we collaborate directly with clients to define exactly what they want to forecast—then deliver the probability that event will happen.
- Simple thresholds: e.g.
Temperature > 95°F - Derived variables: e.g.
Wind gusts > 30 mph - Compound risks: e.g.
Hot + Dry + Windyfor wildfire threat - Time filtering: e.g. daytime-only heat risk or nighttime frost
From fire danger to freeze protection, the forecasts are built around your logic—not a generic model.
Built for Business Decisions
Our weather intelligence supports operational planning across industries—from energy to finance to agriculture.
Energy & Utilities
Balance load and generation with clear wind/solar probability drivers.
Finance & Commodities
Quantify weather-driven volatility in crops, gas, and power trading.
Climate Risk
Capture acute weather shocks and long-tail probability events.
Let’s Define Your Event
Tell us the thresholds, timing, and locations that matter to your operations—and we’ll forecast it.
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