ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts
Move beyond single-point forecasts. ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts use AI-enhanced ensemble intelligence to quantify uncertainty and deliver actionable probabilities for the events that matter to your business.
What are ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?
Unlike traditional deterministic forecasts that provide a single "best guess" outcome, probabilistic forecasting uses ensemble models to run hundreds of simulations of the atmosphere, each with slightly different initial conditions.
This approach captures the inherent uncertainty in weather systems and provides you with probability distributions for any weather variable or event you care about—from temperature thresholds to complex multi-variable scenarios.
Key Benefits:
- •Quantify forecast confidence
- •Assess tail risk scenarios
- •Enable risk-based decision making
- •Support parametric insurance triggers
Deterministic vs. Probabilistic: See the Difference
Tomorrow's Temperature
Deterministic: Provides a single forecast value. Useful for general planning, but offers no insight into forecast confidence or alternative scenarios.
Interactive Ensemble → Probability Calculator
See how 51 ECMWF ensemble members convert to actionable probabilities. Adjust the threshold to understand how probability calculations work in real-time.
Interactive Ensemble → Probability Calculator
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Define Events That Matter to Your Business
Don't settle for generic weather alerts. ilika lets you define precise weather events tailored to your operational thresholds, risk tolerance, and business requirements. From simple single-variable triggers to complex multi-parameter events.
Simple Weather Events
Single-variable triggers for straightforward risk management
Complex Multi-Variable Events
Sophisticated combinations that capture real-world risk scenarios
Available Weather Variables
Choose from dozens of meteorological parameters to create events that precisely match your business logic and risk profile.
ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts - Global Coverage
Example: 10-day probability forecast for wind speeds exceeding 10 m/s, derived from ECMWF ensemble data. Colors represent probability levels from low (blue) to high (red).
Powering Parametric Insurance
ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts are specifically designed to support parametric insurance products, providing the reliable probability distributions needed for accurate premium pricing and risk assessment.
How It Works
Define trigger events with your underwriting team
Calculate probability distributions for each location
Price policies based on accurate risk probabilities
Monitor and adjust based on forecast updates
Key Advantages
- •Uniform probability distributions ensure fair pricing
- •Historical validation shows forecast reliability
- •Updates enable dynamic risk adjustment
- •Global coverage supports portfolio diversification
- •API integration automates policy management
Sample Parametric Products
Heat Wave Protection
Triggers when T > 35°C for 3+ consecutive days
Drought Insurance
Activates when precipitation < 20% of historical average
Wind Damage Cover
Pays out when wind speeds exceed 25 m/s
Industry Applications
ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts transform decision-making across industries by quantifying weather uncertainty and providing actionable risk intelligence for strategic planning and operational optimization.
Energy & Utilities
Energy Trading & Risk Management
Quantify temperature-driven demand uncertainty for natural gas, electricity, and heating oil markets. ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts enable precise volatility modeling and tail-risk assessment.
Renewable Energy Operations
Optimize wind and solar generation scheduling, energy storage deployment, and grid balancing with probabilistic generation forecasts.
Agriculture & Food Systems
Crop Risk Assessment
Evaluate yield variability and weather-related risks for crop insurance, commodity trading, and supply chain planning using probabilistic growing season forecasts.
Food Supply Chain
Anticipate weather disruptions to agricultural production and logistics networks with probabilistic scenario planning.
Construction & Infrastructure
Project Risk Management
Optimize construction schedules and resource allocation based on weather delay probabilities. Plan for extreme weather impacts on critical infrastructure.
Asset Protection
Safeguard infrastructure investments with probabilistic extreme weather forecasting for flooding, wind damage, and temperature stress.
Transportation & Logistics
Route Optimization
Minimize weather-related delays and fuel costs for aviation, shipping, and ground transportation using probabilistic route planning.
Supply Chain Resilience
Build weather-resilient supply chains with probabilistic disruption forecasting and contingency planning.
Why Choose ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?
Move beyond traditional point forecasts. ilika delivers enterprise-grade probabilistic weather intelligence that quantifies uncertainty and transforms weather data into actionable business insights.
World-Class Ensemble Data
ECMWF's 51-member ensemble enhanced with AI processing for superior accuracy
• Advanced perturbation techniques
• Real-time data assimilation
Custom Event Triggers
Weather thresholds precisely calibrated to your operational requirements
• Multi-variable combinations
• Risk-aligned definitions
Global Coverage
25km resolution worldwide with regional enhancement capabilities
• Local weather pattern integration
• Multi-timezone coordination
Ready to Quantify Weather Uncertainty?
Let's discuss your specific weather risk scenarios and design ilika Probabilistic Weather Forecasts that support your decision-making process. Whether you're pricing parametric insurance, trading energy, or managing operational risk—we'll deliver the probabilities you need.