NJ Energy AI product brief and technical accuracy report
Calibrated probability distributions of temperature for New Jersey's electric service territories, scored out of sample against ERA5 with the continuous ranked probability score and daily heating and cooling degree-day error at the Newark, Trenton, Atlantic City and Philadelphia zones, from the day ahead to six weeks.
This brief reports the accuracy of the calibrated temperature distributions behind the New Jersey dashboards, measured the way the meteorological community measures probabilistic forecasts. Every number is out of sample: the model that produced each forecast never saw the year it is scored on.
The forecast is the 51-member ECMWF ensemble recalibrated by Ilika's EMOS layer at leads of 1 to 15 days, and the 11-member ECMWF extended-range reforecast recalibrated the same way at 10 to 46 days. The baselines are the raw ECMWF ensemble as published and the production blend used before this period. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis daily mean temperature at the zone's grid point.
The full brief, with the tables for each New Jersey zone and the method notes, is available as a PDF. The 55-city Phase 0 baseline report and the verification data are available on request.