References

Technical notes and further reading.

Notes from our own work, and external reading we point clients to.

Technical notes

Technical terms, explained.

technical noteAugust 22, 2026

Why long-range forecasts need calibration before anyone can price on them

Weather models are skilful well beyond two weeks, but the raw output is biased and overconfident at exactly the horizons where energy, insurance, and agriculture decisions are made. This note explains what calibration does, why it has to be local, and how to tell a calibrated forecast from a raw one.

Ilika Geospatial

What we point clients to.

External references relevant to the conversations on this site. None are affiliated with Ilika.

Ensemble forecasting at ECMWF

How the 51-member ensembles behind the medium and seasonal ranges are produced.

Strictly proper scoring rules (Gneiting and Raftery, 2007)

The reference paper behind CRPS, the score this site reports.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center

The public seasonal outlooks most US readers already know.

What is parametric insurance? (Swiss Re)

A plain introduction to parametric covers and basis risk.

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Per-station and per-lead breakdowns, verification data, and protocols are shared with prospective clients on request.

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