Technical notes and further reading.

Calibrated probability distributions of temperature for New Jersey's electric service territories, scored out of sample against ERA5 with the continuous ranked probability score and daily heating and cooling degree-day error at the Newark, Trenton, Atlantic City and Philadelphia zones, from the day ahead to six weeks.

Weather models are skilful well beyond two weeks, but the raw output is biased and overconfident at exactly the horizons where energy, insurance, and agriculture decisions are made. This note explains what calibration does, why it has to be local, and how to tell a calibrated forecast from a raw one.